The coal transportation volume is uneven, and the Datong Qinhuangdao line is "not enough to eat"

The coal price hovers at a low level, and the coal market is "not prosperous in both supply and demand". The side effects of its continuous downturn finally extend to railway transportation.

The national development and Reform Commission recently disclosed that in June, the national railway coal shipment volume was 140 million tons, down 12% year on year. From January to June, 910 million tons of coal were shipped, down 11.2%. From January to June, the national coal output was 1.63 billion tons, down 9.7% year on year.

"On the one hand, the state has successively introduced policies and measures to resolve coal overcapacity, which have played an effective role. In particular, many illegal coal mines have been shut down, directly affecting the raw coal output; on the other hand, the decline in raw coal output is related to the decline in market demand. In addition, the decline in raw coal consumption for thermal power generation and coking production is also the main reason for the decline in coal output in the first half of the year." Said Wang Xingyan of raw material industry Research Institute of CCID Research Institute.

At the same time that the output is greatly reduced, the coal issuing enterprises pay more attention to the logistics cost, and the comprehensive logistics cost determines the choice of transportation channels for customers. In the second half of last year, after the opening of zhunchi line, the coal in western Inner Mongolia was launched from the "zhunchi line - Shuohuang line - Huanghua Port" channel, which was 15-17 yuan / ton lower than that from the "Dazhun line - Daqin line - Qinhuangdao Port". Affected by the factors of short railway transportation distance and low freight, many high-quality coal in western Inner Mongolia has been diverted from the Datong Qinhuangdao railway to the Shuohuang Railway, resulting in a rapid increase in the transportation volume of the Shuohuang Railway and a sharp decrease in the transportation volume of the Datong Qinhuangdao railway.

"In the past, the Datong Qinhuangdao railway was overloaded. Now we should say that there is still some spare power." A staff member of Qinhuangdao Port told the Huaxia times.

In the market competition, the shipping role and status of "zhunchi line Shuohuang line Huanghua Port" have been significantly improved, and the coal shipping center has gradually shifted from the Daqin line, which is the "front coal transport channel", to the Shuohuang line, which is the "second coal transport channel". Affected by this, the coal transportation volume of Qinhuangdao port, Caofeidian port and SDIC Jingtang Port decreased significantly by 55 million tons year on year. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua port and Tianjin port increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua port increased by 28 million.

However, with the arrival of summer power consumption peak, starting from June, the peak of coal consumption will come, the downstream demand will increase, and the enthusiasm of users to pull coal will be correspondingly increased, which will drive the coastal coal transportation to become increasingly busy. The coal transportation volume of northern ports may exceed that of the first half of the year.

"In the past two months, the main coal producing enterprises are also bound to increase the sales and shipment volume, the railway and port transportation will be significantly improved, and the coastal coal market will have a long-awaited boom in supply and demand. However, September and October are the off-season for coal consumption. Despite the weakening of civil electricity, the economy will continue to stabilize and the demand for coal will not drop significantly. It is expected that the number of coal transported from the north to the South will decrease slightly in the whole year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to maintain Stable, the increase of civil electricity will drive the market to improve, and the coal price will continue to rise. By the end of the year, it is expected that the transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at the port will exceed 500 yuan / ton, an increase of 130 yuan / ton over the beginning of the year. " Said Wang Yun, an analyst at Qinhuangdao coal network.